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The impact of climate change on the yield of Bambara groundnut in Thailand using the DSSAT model

Abstract

Climate change affects agricultural systems worldwide, including Thailand, and may lead to reduced crop yields, impacting food security. Bambara groundnut is a crop with the potential to adapt to changing environments and can thrive in areas with limited resources. This research aims to study the impact of climate change on Bambara groundnut yields in Thailand using the DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) model, an important tool for predicting plant growth under various environmental conditions. This study utilizes climate data, soil composition, and genetic information of Bambara groundnut to simulate and analyze yield trends under future climate scenarios. Four study areas in Thailand were selected: Songkhla, Lampang, Yasothon, and Saraburi. The CSM-CROPGRO-Bambara groundnut model was used to assess the impact of changing temperature and rainfall on the growth and yield of Bambara groundnut. The results of this study are expected to provide farmers and researchers with valuable information for planning cultivation and managing peanut production in response to climate change. Additionally, the findings can help formulate policy guidelines to promote the cultivation of climate-resilient crops and support the country's food security.

Objective

การเปลี่ยนแปลงสภาพภูมิอากาศส่งผลกระทบต่อระบบเกษตรกรรมทั่วโลก รวมถึงการเพาะปลูกพืชอาหาร ถั่วหรั่ง (Bambara groundnut) เป็นพืชตระกูลถั่วที่มีความสามารถทนแล้ง เจริญเติบโตได้ดีในดินที่มีความอุดมสมบูรณ์ต่ำ และให้คุณค่าทางโภชนาการสูง จึงมีศักยภาพในการเสริมความมั่นคงทางอาหารของประเทศ อย่างไรก็ตาม การเปลี่ยนแปลงของอุณหภูมิ ปริมาณน้ำฝน และความแปรปรวนของสภาพอากาศ อาจส่งผลต่อการเจริญเติบโตและผลผลิตของถั่วหรั่ง ทำให้เกิดความไม่แน่นอนในระบบการเกษตร งานวิจัยนี้มีเป้าหมายเพื่อประเมินผลกระทบของการเปลี่ยนแปลงสภาพภูมิอากาศต่อผลผลิตถั่วหรั่งในประเทศไทย โดยใช้แบบจำลอง DSSAT (Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer) ซึ่งเป็นเครื่องมือที่ช่วยจำลองสภาพแวดล้อมและพฤติกรรมการเจริญเติบโตของพืชภายใต้สภาวะต่างๆ การศึกษานี้จะช่วยให้สามารถคาดการณ์แนวโน้มผลผลิตของถั่วหรั่งในอนาคต และนำไปใช้ในการวางแผนการเพาะปลูก รวมถึงพัฒนากลยุทธ์ในการปรับตัวของเกษตรกรให้สามารถรับมือกับสภาพภูมิอากาศที่เปลี่ยนแปลงได้อย่างมีประสิทธิภาพ

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